Rain dampens Derby dollars, Truist analyst says

<p>Last weekend&#8217;s running of the Kentucky Derby saw record amounts of money wagered, both with Churchill Downs and its online TwinSpires subsidiary. But cash flow from the event fell by as much as $4 million, due to an absence of impulse-driven ticket buyers.</p>
<p>That’s according to Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas in a May 5 investor note. He blamed the cash-flow dip on rainy weather that marred Derby Day.</p>
<p>“While this year had some challenges around tough comps and [the economy], we think there’s a strong setup for growth next year (pricing, smaller projects, NBC contract) and well beyond,†Jonas wrote. He stuck with a Buy rating on Churchill Downs shares, which, he added, are proving the resilience and unquantifiable importance of the horse race.</p>
<p>The contest drew 100,000 fans to Churchill Downs’s eponymous track, in Louisville, Kentucky. That was a seven percent decline from 2024, which Jonas also blamed on steady precipitation.</p>
<p>Handle, however, leapt 11 percent to $234.4 million. The entire card saw wagering of $349 million, a nine percent increase. For the week, betting rose six percent to $473.9 million.</p>
<p>The Derby Week series also saw the debut of an $80 million renovation of the Starting Gate Pavilion &amp; Courtyard that affected 10,000 seats.</p>
<p>Although the 2024 Derby saw a record $32 million in cash flow, Jonas projects this year’s Running of the Roses to pull in $28 million to $30 million. He explained, “We think the variance relates to less-than-expected last-minute ticket purchases given the rain.â€</p>
<p>Online betting handle with TwinSpires for the entire May card vaulted 17 percent, reaching $108 million, up from $92.1 million in 2024. For the Derby proper, it was a record $73 million, a 20 percent leap.</p>
<p>TV viewership rose eight percent at peak volume, pulling in 21.8 million viewers and averaging 17.7 million eyeballs. This was the highest TV rating since 1989 and a six percent improvement from 2024.</p>
<p>Streaming ratings for Derby Day ascended 34 percent, making it Peacock’s most-watched Saturday program since NFL playoff games in 2024. A newer more lucrative TV contract covers the 2026 race and all Kentucky Derbies through 2032.</p>
<p>Despite the cash-flow disappointment last weekend, Jonas predicted better times ahead. He attributed this to renovations of The Mansion and the track’s Finish Line Suites, a $30 million project. Jonas was also optimistic about the renewed NBC contract, which he saw as a $10 million upside. Also, following relatively subdued price increases for 2025, he applauded the advent of “dynamic pricing†in 2026.</p>
<p>“We also see opportunity for further growth during Derby Week beyond the Derby and Oaks,†the analyst added. “We also expect management to announce smaller-scale projects to incrementally grow the Derby race over the coming months.â€</p>